Showing posts from April, 2020

Optimize for Survival

Although we often glorify risk taking as a general principle, optimal outcomes are the result of pushing the limits only within a threshold of which you can survive. To assume a position completely void of optionality is to paint yourself into a corner and given enough time will result in catastrophic loss or death. You Can’t Know Try as we might, humans have thus far failed to prove an ability to predict the future. Sure we can make decent guesses in certain domains and that ability has increased in the age of data science, but to date even our best predictive models are akin to child’s play when you take a hard look backwards in time. If you don’t believe me, write down your local weather forecast for the next ten days, record the actual weather each day, and compare the two afterwards. We’ve been trying to predict the weather for the entirety of recorded human history and we can’t even get that right a lot of the time.  As it turns out, the more rare the occurrence of an eve